http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/video/fed-interest-rates-decision-means-stocks-investors
I wish I am Smart
Wednesday, September 23, 2015
The End Game Has Begun
The End Game Has Begun
For six years, the world
has operated based on faith and hope that Central Banks somehow fixed the
issues that caused the 2008 Crisis.
All of the arguments
supporting this defied common sense. A 5th grader knows that you cannot solve a
debt problem by issuing more debt. If the below chart was a problem BEFORE
2008… there is no way that things are better now. After all, we’ve just added
another $10 trillion in debt to the US system.
Similarly, anyone with a
functioning brain could tell you that a bunch of academics with no real-world
experience, none of whom have ever started a business or created a single job
can’t “save” the economy. Indeed, few if any of the Fed Presidents have even
run a bank before. And yet they’re in charge of the banking system.
However, there is an AWFUL
lot of money at stake in maintaining the illusion of Central Banking
omniscience. So the media and the banks and the politicians were happy to
promote them. Indeed, one could very easily argue that nearly all of the wealth
and power held by those at the top of the economy stem from this fiction.
So it’s little surprise
that no one would admit the facts: that the Fed and other Central Banks not
only don’t have a clue how to fix the problem, but that they
actually have almost no incentive to do so.
So here are the facts:
1) The REAL
problem for the financial system is the bond bubble. In 2008 when the crisis
hit it was $80 trillion. It has since grown to over $100 trillion.
2)The derivatives market that uses
this bond bubble as collateral is over $555 trillion in size.
3)Many of the large
multinational corporations, sovereign governments, and even municipalities have
used derivatives to fake earnings and hide debt. NO
ONE knows to what degree this has been the case, but given that 20% of
corporate CFOs have admitted to faking earnings in the past, it’s likely a
significant amount.
4)
Corporations today are more leveraged than they were in 2007. As Stanley
Druckenmiller noted recently, in 2007 corporate bonds were $3.5 trillion… today
they are $7 trillion: an amount equal to nearly 50% of US GDP.
5) The
Central Banks are now all leveraged at levels greater than or equal to where
Lehman Brothers was when it imploded. The Fed is leveraged at 78 to 1. The ECB
is leveraged at over 26 to 1. Lehman Brothers was leveraged at 30 to 1.
6) The
Central Banks have no idea how to exit their strategies. Fed minutes released
from 2009 show Janet Yellen was worried about
how to exit when the Fed’s balance sheet was $1.3 trillion (back in 2009).
Today it’s over $4.5 trillion.
We are heading for a
crisis that will be exponentially worse than 2008. The global Central Banks
have literally bet the financial system that their theories will work.
They haven’t. All they’ve done is set the stage for an even worse crisis in
which entire countries will go bankrupt.
This process has
already begun abroad.
In January 2015, the
Swiss National Bank (SNB), backed into a corner by the ECB’s QE program, had a
choice: print an obscene amount of money to defend the Franc’s peg or break the
peg.
The SNB chose to
break the peg. In a single day, the bank lost an amount of money equal to
somewhere between 10% and 15% of Swiss GDP. More than that, it let the Franc
appreciate… in a country in which 54% of the GDP is based on exports.
The next bank to lose
its grip is the Central Bank of China.
With an economy in
free-fall (GDP is growing by 3% at best), a dual
house and stock bubbles bursting simultaneously, China’s regulators went on the
offensive: freezing the markets, banning short-selling, arresting
short-sellers, and pumping tens of billions of Dollars into the market per day.
Despite this, Chinese
stocks continue to crater. And the economy hasn’t budged.
The fact of the
matter is that despite public opinion, there are problems that are so big that the
Central Banks cannot fix them. We’ve seen this in Switzerland and China. It
will be spreading to other countries in the near future.
Indeed, by the look
of things, the Fed began to lose control of the market last week when it failed
to raise interst rates. Despite doing this, stocks have begun to plunge and are
rapidly losing value.
In short, the next
round of the great crisis is beginning. It will take time to unfold, but
we have reached Peak Central Bank Intervention. When Central Banks loosen
policy and the markets fail to respond, you're in the End Game.
Health Benefits of Rosemary Oil
Health Benefits of Rosemary Oil
Rosemary oil is one of
the most popular essential oils for its wide array of health benefits. It has
become increasingly important and popular over the years as more of its various
health benefits have become understood, including its ability to stimulate hair
growth, boost mental activity, relieve respiratory problems and reduce pain.
Rosemary, also known as Rosmarinus
Officinalis, is very popular in the Mediterranean region as a
culinary herb. Many dishes are cooked with rosemary oil and freshly plucked
rosemary leaves. Rosemary essential oil is mostly extracted from the leaves.
The rosemary bush belongs to the mint family which includes basil, lavender,
myrtle, and sage.
Rosemary has been
extensively used since ancient times for a variety of purposes. The Romans gave
special importance to the rosemary plant and used it frequently in religious
ceremonies. It was also used during wedding ceremonies, food preparation,
cosmetic care, and medicinal herbal care. Rosemary plant and its extract were
also used by the ancient, Egyptian civilization as incense.
The health benefits of
rosemary essential oil made it a favorite of Paracelsus, a renowned
German-Swiss physician and botanist, who made significant contributions to the
understanding of herbal medicine during the 16th century. Paracelsus valued
rosemary oil due because of its ability to strengthen the entire body. He
correctly believed that rosemary oil had the ability to heal delicate organs
such as the liver, brain, and heart.
Health Benefits of Rosemary Oil
Today, many medicinal
preparations contain rosemary oil. The various, well-researched health benefits
of rosemary oil are listed below:
Indigestion: Rosemary oil is
often used for indigestion, relieving flatulence, stomach cramps, constipation,
and bloating. Rosemary essential oil is also thought to relieve symptoms of
dyspepsia and it is an appetite stimulant. Furthermore, research has shown the
essential oil to be detoxifying for the liver, and it also helps to regulate
the creation and release of bile, which is a key part of
the digestive process. It also stimulates blood flow and improves circulation,
which can benefit the absorption of nutrients from food. Rosemary leaves are
often added to meat dishes because it is particularly helpful in digesting
meat, particularly lamb, beef and pork.
Hair care: Rosemary oil and rosemary teas are widely used for hair
care in shampoos and lotions. Regular use of rosemary oil helps tostimulate
follicles,
making hair grow longer and stronger. It is also believed that rosemary oil
slows down premature hair loss and graying of the hair. Therefore, it is an
excellent tonic for bald people or those who are beginning to show signs on
male pattern baldness.
Rosemary essential oil
is also beneficial for dry and flaky scalps. Regular massaging of the scalp
with rosemary oil nourishes the scalp and removes dandruff. Furthermore, it is
often mixed with tea tree oil andbasil oil to alternately treat
scalp problems. For many years, rosemary has been combined with olive oil as a
way to darken and strengthen hair by using hot oil treatments.
Mouth care: Rosemary essential oil is a disinfectant and is often used as a
mouth wash. It also helps in removing bad breath. By removing
oral bacteria, rosemary essential oil can prevent gingivitis, cavities,
plaque build up, and other damaging dental conditions.
Skin care: Rosemary essential
oil is not used in skin care as extensively as it is used in hair care, but it
does have antimicrobial
and antiseptic qualities that make it beneficial in efforts to eliminate eczema,
dermatitis, oily skin, and acne. Topical application of the essential oil, or
regular massage with the oil helps in toning your skin and removing dryness. It
can also give your skin a healthy, even glow when regularly applied, or when it
is a main component of your moisturizers and other creams.
Boosting mental
activity: Rosemary essential oil
is an excellent brain and nerve tonic. It is often used by students during exam
times because it increases concentration and helps in studying efficiently. It
stimulates mental activity and is a good remedy for depression, mental fatigue
and forgetfulness. Inhaling rosemary oil seems lift your spirits immediately.
Whenever your brain is tired, try inhaling a little rosemary oil to remove
boredom and renew your mental energy.
In
a 2003 study, researchers found that of 144 test participants who inhaled
rosemary oil during an exam displayed significantly higher cognitive function.
This is why some researchers are beginning to explore the options for using
rosemary oil as an alternative treatment for slowing down the onset of
Alzheimer’s disease in certain patients because of this apparent connection
between boosted neural activity and the essential oil.
Stress Relief: Aside from the relaxing nature of aromatherapy and general
inhalation of rosemary essential oil, it has been proven to actually decrease
the level of cortisol in the saliva. Cortisol is one of the main stress
hormones that are released during the “flight or fight” response of the body to
stress. Excess cortisol in the blood that may occur due to chronic stress can
wreak havoc on the body, including its hormonal balance and the efficiency of
the metabolism. A study released in 2007 said that inhaling rosemary oil and lavender oil for five
minutes significantly reduced the levels of cortisol in the test subject’s
saliva, which could seriously decrease the dangers inherent from chronic
stress.
Immune System Boost: Antioxidants are some of the most valuable defensive weapons we
have in our body for fighting off infection and disease, so any food or
essential oil that either adds to or stimulates the activity of antioxidants is
a huge benefit to overall health. The same study which found that cortisol
levels decreased after simultaneous massage and inhalation of rosemary
essential oil also found that the scavenging
free radical activity in the test subjects’
bodies also increased significantly. This means that regular use or inhalation
of rosemary essential oil in aromatherapy sessions or in other ways can
increase the strength of the immune system and help combat all of the diseases
associated with free radicals, including cancer and heart disease.
Pain relief: The ability of rosemary essential oil
to relieve pain has resulted in its
extensive use in treating headaches, muscle pains, rheumatism and even
arthritis. Massaging the affected area that is in pain with rosemary essential
oil can give quickly relieve the pain. Vapor baths with rosemary oil are also
found to be effective in the treatment of rheumatism. It has certain
anti-inflammatory qualities as well, which makes it very good for relieving the
pain from sprains and joint aches. Furthermore, it is known to stimulate blood
circulation, which can relieve pain and also aid in coagulation of wounds for
faster healing.
Aroma: Rosemary has a mesmerizing aroma, which makes rosemary essential
oil an excellent inhalant. The oil is used in room fresheners, cosmetics,
beauty aids, food, bath oil, candles and perfumes because of its unique and
intoxicating aroma. When the oil is inhaled, it can boost mental energy and is
also known to clear the respiratory
tract.
Many people spray a mixture of rosemary essential oil and water to remove bad
odors from room and objects.
Sexually Transmitted
Diseases: Recent research suggests that the use of rosemary essential
oil’s antimicrobial qualities can help reduce the effects and recurring
inflammation of the herpes virus. The herpes virus can quickly develop immunity
to normal antiviral medication, so alternative methods are always being
explored. A number of studies have now shown the essential oil of rosemary to
be an effective option for reducing the symptoms of the Herpes virus in test subjects, and
even affects the level of contagiousness of the virus.
Respiratory problems:The benefits of rosemary
essential oil in treating respiratory problems are well-researched and
supported. The scent of the oil has been shown to give relief from throat
congestion, and it is also used in the treatment of respiratory allergies,
colds, sore throats and the flu. Since rosemary oil also has antiseptic
qualities, it is also effective for respiratory infections. The oil is
antispasmodic and is therefore used in some treatment programs for bronchial
asthma.
There are various other
claims regarding possible health benefits of rosemary oil, including its usage
for disorders in menstrual cycle, menstrual cramps, peptic ulcer, urine flow,
prostate, gall bladder, intestine, liver, cataract, heart, sperm mobility,
leukemia, kidney stones and associated pain. Research is currently being
performed to study its potential in treating various types of cancers including
those of the colon, stomach, breasts, and lungs.
Rosemary oil may, at
times, cause allergic reactions, so it should only be used if prescribed or
after thorough consultation with your medical specialist. Since rosemary oil is
volatile in nature, the oil has occasionally caused vomiting and spasms.
Therefore, it should never be ingested. It is strongly suggested that rosemary
essential oil should not be used by pregnant, breastfeeding, or nursing women.
Excessive use of the oil may even lead to miscarriage or a disability in the
fetus.
Rosemary essential oil
is used extensively in aromatherapy due to its versatility as a welcome aroma
in so many popular combinations. The oil blends well with frankincense,
lavender, clary sage, cedarwood, basil, thyme, citronella, lemongrass, elemi, geranium, chamomile,
peppermint and cardamom.
Tuesday, August 27, 2013
The CAPE P/E
The
CAPE Ressearch Catalog
Our
Mission…
Ref: http://www.pe10ratio.com/index.htmlThe raison d’etre of this web site is to be the financial planner's “go to” resource for learning about and staying current with any and all writing, research and thoughtful discussion relating to Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings (CAPE) ratios such as the P/E10 and its variants ( P/E5, P/E15, etc.).
Toward this end, this site is a catalog of research and thoughtful discussion that is focused on Cyclically Adjusted P/E ratios.
Site Usage Suggestions
For Those Unfamiliar (more or less) With CAPE Topics...To establish the appropriate conceptual foundation, visit the About Stock Returns page then the CAPE Topics page of this site. Then visit The Research page to see the catalog of research.
For Those Already Familiar With CAPE Topics...
Visit The Research page to find research you may not have already read.
Request For Citations...
Our goal is to cite every book, research article or thoughtful discussion
available in English about CAPE topics. We suspect that we don't know
about every article/discussion out there, especially if it was published years
ago. If you know of an instance of CAPE research or discussion that is not cataloged on The Research page we hope you will send us an email to let us know about it so we can consider it for inclusion in this catalog.
We are interested in scholarly research, white papers, working papers, journal articles, web articles, web blog discussions and the like.
And, while we welcome all genuine tips, the more professional, groundbreaking/additive and substantive the research/discussion is the better are the chances that we will include the item in the catalog.
Monday, August 26, 2013
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